The Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution (1804) provides the procedure by which the president and vice president are elected electors vote separately for each office. The Electoral College's electors then formally elect the president and vice president. This is because presidential elections are indirect elections the votes cast on Election Day are not cast directly for a candidate, but for members of the Electoral College. Thus it is possible for the winner of the popular vote to end up losing the election, an outcome that has occurred on five occasions, most recently in the 2016 election. However, the popular vote is not used to determine who is elected as the nation's president or vice president. the candidate who gains the most votes nationwide is said to have won the popular vote. Margin of victory data for all 435 House races is displayed in the following table.In a United States presidential election, the popular vote is the total number or the percentage of votes cast for a candidate by voters in the 50 states and Washington, D.C. The following table displays the closest House races in the country in 2016. The closest race was in California's 49th Congressional District, where incumbent Darrell Issa (R) defeated Douglas Applegate (D) by 0.5 percent of the vote.The average MOV for victorious Democrats was 41.54 percent, while Republican victors averaged a MOV of 33.51 percent. On average, Republicans won by significantly smaller margins than Democrats.The average margin of victory in battleground races was 5.71 percent.This is very close to the average of 35.8 percent in 2014. The average margin of victory was 36.6 percent.
If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100%. The margin of victory for each race is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the two candidates who received the most votes. The following table shows the incumbents who sought re-election but were defeated in the general election. These races were not rated as battlegrounds because they were likely to flip control. These are districts where a change in party was expected due to court-ordered redistricting that occurred earlier in the election cycle. This table shows what happened in each of the 23 House battleground races. The Republican Party's majority was slightly reduced in 2016, as Democrats picked up six seats. Republicans held 246 seats compared to Democrats' 186 seats, while three seats were vacant. Prior to the election, The Republican Party had the majority in the U.S. 7.1 Could Democrats have reclaimed the House?.3.1 Incumbents who sought higher office.The last two presidential elections saw gains of only eight and 24 seats for Democrats, while the last two midterms resulted in Republican gains of 13 and 64 seats. Presidential elections also tend to result in smaller changes to House partisan balance than midterms. House, while midterms have helped Republicans. In the past decade, presidential elections have led to Democratic gains in the U.S. Presidential election years lead to increased voter interest and turnout, which has an effect all the way down the ballot. The coinciding presidential election had a significant impact on the elections for U.S. As expected, the Republican Party easily held the chamber. If Democrats had won every one of those 37 races and lost no other seats, they would have just hit the 30 seats required to retake the chamber. Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated 23 races as battlegrounds and an additional 14 as races to watch. In order to flip control of the chamber, the Democratic Party would have needed to pick up 30 seats. It was never likely that Democrats would retake the chamber however, double-digit gains in the House were predicted.Īlthough it was unlikely for Democrats to retake the House, the possibility had been discussed prior to the election. Republicans preserved their majority and only lost a net six seats, resulting in a 241-194 majority. Additionally, there were three special elections to fill the final two months of vacancies that were created during the 114th United States Congress.ĭespite losing several seats in the chamber, the Republican Party had a strong night in the House.
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